WTF Is Happening With Paul Skenes?

Even as one of the more optimistic Pirates fans on the internet, I have had trouble accepting the opinions of people even more optimistic than me that have rushed to tell everyone that there’s nothing wrong with Paul Skenes. Pittsburgh’s Ace, and last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner, who posted a sub-two ERA in both of his first two seasons is currently sitting at a very pedestrian 3.96 ERA through 24 starts this season. Last night’s performance was more of the same Paul we’ve seen all year. 5 innings pitched 2 hits 3 runs 4 walks 6 Ks. The thing that has been most concerning, is that those 5 innings of work took 93 pitches. It’s been this way all season, with opposing lineups running his pitch count up to 100 in 5 innings or less becoming a routine occurrence. Gone are the days of 7 innings of Skenes ending with a strikeout on his 100th pitch, here are the days of unceremonious early exits, more often than not, with the Pirates down on the scoreboard. 

We can’t pretend this isn’t a very real problem.

It’s not just Skenes’ ERA and pitch counts that have been concerning this year. If you live in the Pittsburgh area, walk into a Rally House. There’s going to be a shirt in the Pirates Section that features an animated Paul Skenes in his windup, next to the phrase “Keeping it 100+.” Two years ago, that shirt was all over PNC Park, and while I still see it from time to time, these days it feels more like a relic of a bygone era. In 2024, Paul Skenes' starts were appointment television. The rookie ace was blowing batters away with 100 MPH fastballs and making people look silly with his signature “splinker.” That Ace isn’t on this 2026 Pirates team. Number 30 sure looks like him, but if it is him, then one of those kids on the little league field he stopped by earlier this season must’ve been a “Space Jam” style Monstar that stole his baseball powers. His velocity is way down, he has suggested that it is by design to protect his arm, but there has to be some in-between where we still see triple digits occasionally. Batters are fouling the 95-97 stuff off by design and waiting to get walked or for Paul to make a mistake and allow hard contact, which we’ve also seen way too much of this Year.

My money’s on the kid in the Curry Jersey, a basketball fan in Pittsburgh is suspicious, and we know that Monstars love basektball.

This year’s Skenes hasn’t been anywhere near the worst pitcher in baseball, and you can’t put the full blame of Pittsburgh’s latest slump on him, but your Cy Young winner turning into a replacement-level pitcher isn’t something that no team can project for. I don’t think we’re going to see the dominant Skenes we had gotten so used to anytime this season, and if we don’t then you can kiss any chance of a Pirates post-season push goodbye. 

I know at least one person who is going to read this owns this now very sad shirt.

I don’t know what’s happening with Paul Skenes. Is it an injury? Work load? Does he just hate being here? Is the World Baseball Classic-caused regression as serious as some would imply? Whatever it is, if there’s baseball in 2027, he needs to figure it out, or conversations need to start being had about moving him before he tanks his own value.